Turkey and Syria: A Complex Relationship Shaped by Conflict, Migration, and Regional Power Struggles
Introduction
The relationship between Turkey and Syria is defined by a complex mix of history, strategic rivalry, and the dramatic consequences of Syria’s decade-long civil war. From border disputes and the Kurdish question to migration crises and the battle for influence in the Middle East, Turkey and Syria’s interactions have shifted from periods of cautious cooperation to open conflict. Today, Turkey’s role in Syria reflects its ambitions to be a regional power, its concerns over Kurdish autonomy, and its efforts to manage the millions of refugees who have sought safety within its borders. As both nations navigate this complicated landscape, the Turkey-Syria relationship highlights broader issues of security, geopolitics, and humanitarian responsibility.
Historical Background: Tensions and Cooperation
Turkey and Syria share deep historical ties, with both lands once part of the Ottoman Empire until the early 20th century. Following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the modern borders of Turkey and Syria were drawn under French and British colonial mandates, often disregarding ethnic, religious, and tribal affiliations. This redrawing created lingering border disputes, including over the region of Hatay, which Turkey formally annexed in 1939 but Syria has never officially recognized as Turkish territory.
Despite these territorial issues, relations between Turkey and Syria were largely manageable until the late 20th century. The two nations experienced serious tensions in the 1990s over Syrian support for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish separatist group that Turkey considers a terrorist organization. The PKK launched attacks against the Turkish state from Syrian territory, leading Turkey to threaten military action in 1998. However, the crisis was defused when Syria expelled PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan and promised to halt support for the group, marking a diplomatic shift that temporarily stabilized relations.
In the 2000s, Turkey and Syria developed closer ties, with trade booming and diplomatic cooperation deepening as Turkey pursued a “zero problems with neighbors” policy. However, the outbreak of Syria’s civil war in 2011 shattered this fragile rapprochement, transforming Turkey from a partner into an active adversary.
The Syrian Civil War: From Neutrality to Intervention
The Syrian civil war began in 2011 with anti-government protests that soon escalated into an armed uprising against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Turkey initially adopted a neutral stance but soon backed the Syrian opposition as Assad’s crackdown became increasingly violent. Turkey supported various Syrian rebel groups, providing arms, financial aid, and safe havens for fighters. Ankara’s decision to back the opposition aimed both to topple Assad and to counter Iranian influence in Syria, as Iran strongly supported Assad’s government.
As the war evolved, so did Turkey’s involvement. By 2016, Turkey had shifted from indirect support to direct military intervention, launching Operation Euphrates Shield to clear ISIS militants and Kurdish forces from areas along its border. Turkey’s deepening role in Syria was driven by two main concerns: the threat posed by ISIS and, perhaps more urgently, the growing influence of Kurdish groups like the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey views as an extension of the PKK.
In the years since, Turkey has launched multiple military operations in northern Syria, establishing control over buffer zones along the border. These interventions have often targeted YPG-held areas, aiming to prevent Kurdish forces from creating an autonomous region that could inspire similar aspirations among Turkey’s own Kurdish population. Turkey’s occupation of parts of northern Syria remains a flashpoint, drawing criticism from Assad’s government and concerns from the international community about the humanitarian impact of Turkey’s presence.
The Kurdish Question: A Key Driver of Turkey’s Syria Policy
Turkey’s policy in Syria is heavily influenced by its longstanding conflict with the PKK, which has waged an insurgency for greater Kurdish autonomy in Turkey since the 1980s. The PKK is a designated terrorist organization in Turkey, the U.S., and the EU, and Turkey views any Kurdish-led political entity in Syria as a potential threat to its territorial integrity. Turkey’s military operations in Syria have largely focused on weakening the YPG, which led the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and played a critical role in defeating ISIS with U.S. support.
Despite the YPG’s alliance with the United States against ISIS, Turkey considers it an existential threat due to its ties with the PKK. This has created friction between Turkey and its NATO ally, the United States, as Turkey argues that U.S. support for the YPG strengthens Kurdish ambitions at its expense. Turkey’s establishment of buffer zones in northern Syria aims to prevent a contiguous Kurdish-controlled region along its border, highlighting the Kurdish question as a central element in Turkey’s Syria strategy.
Refugee Crisis and Domestic Pressure in Turkey
The Syrian war has created one of the largest refugee crises in modern history, with millions of Syrians fleeing their homes. Turkey hosts approximately 3.6 million Syrian refugees, the highest number of any country. While Turkey initially welcomed Syrians, portraying itself as a humanitarian actor, the influx has strained resources and intensified political divisions within Turkey.
The refugee crisis has become a contentious issue domestically, with rising anti-immigrant sentiment and pressure on the Turkish government to address the economic and social impact of hosting so many refugees. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has proposed resettling some refugees in northern Syria’s buffer zones, a plan that has raised concerns about forced returns and demographic engineering in Kurdish-majority areas. As Turkey faces economic challenges, the refugee crisis has become a focal point in Turkish politics, influencing elections and fueling nationalist rhetoric.
International Dynamics: Russia, Iran, and the U.S.
Turkey’s involvement in Syria has drawn it into a complex network of alliances and rivalries with global powers, including Russia, Iran, and the United States. Russia and Iran are key allies of Assad’s government, while Turkey backs opposition forces, creating a precarious balance in northern Syria. Yet Turkey and Russia have managed to maintain a pragmatic relationship, with Russia allowing Turkey limited control in northern Syria while Turkey refrains from directly challenging Assad’s rule in government-controlled areas.
This cooperation has included periodic ceasefire agreements in Idlib, the last major stronghold of Syrian opposition forces, where Turkey and Russia operate joint patrols. However, the situation remains fragile, and both countries occasionally clash over competing objectives, with Turkey seeking to limit Kurdish influence while Russia aims to restore Assad’s control over all of Syria.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s relationship with the United States has been strained by American support for the YPG. Although both countries oppose Assad and ISIS, their divergent views on the Kurdish question have led to tensions within NATO, creating a diplomatic rift between Turkey and its Western allies. Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems, partly motivated by frustration with the U.S., further complicated relations with NATO.
The Humanitarian Impact and Idlib’s Last Stand
The prolonged conflict in Syria has had devastating humanitarian consequences, particularly in Idlib, where millions of displaced Syrians remain trapped between rebel groups and Assad’s forces. Turkey’s role in Idlib is critical; it has provided support to opposition fighters while also hosting camps for Syrians fleeing the violence. To prevent another mass influx of refugees, Turkey has positioned itself as a de facto protector of Idlib, deploying troops and establishing observation posts.
Idlib represents one of the last major pockets of resistance against Assad, and Turkey’s presence in the region has prevented a full-scale assault by Syrian and Russian forces. However, the situation remains precarious, with periodic escalations threatening to trigger another humanitarian disaster. Turkey’s position in Idlib is both strategic and humanitarian, as it seeks to balance its own security concerns with the need to avert a further refugee crisis.
Prospects for Peace and Future Relations
The future of Turkey-Syria relations remains uncertain. As Assad consolidates his hold on much of Syria, he has expressed a desire for Turkey to withdraw its forces, labeling Turkey’s military presence an occupation. However, Turkey is unlikely to relinquish its control over northern Syria without assurances regarding Kurdish autonomy, and it views its buffer zones as essential for its security. Negotiations between Turkey and Syria, facilitated by Russia, have occasionally hinted at the possibility of rapprochement, but deep mistrust and conflicting goals make meaningful reconciliation challenging.
As Syria’s war gradually winds down, Turkey faces a dilemma: withdraw and risk a resurgence of Kurdish influence along its border or remain in northern Syria, risking long-term entanglement and conflict with Assad’s government. The resolution of the Turkey-Syria relationship will depend not only on the Kurdish issue but also on broader geopolitical shifts, particularly in relation to Russia and the U.S.
Conclusion: A Conflict-Laden Path Forward
Turkey and Syria’s relationship is emblematic of the Middle East’s interconnected struggles, where security concerns, ideological rivalries, and humanitarian crises intertwine. For Turkey, its presence in Syria is a matter of national security, domestic stability, and regional influence. For Syria, Turkey’s role is an unwelcome interference in its sovereignty, albeit one that has checked the Kurdish influence and shaped the country’s civil war dynamics.
As Turkey and Syria move forward, their relationship will remain volatile, driven by the dual pressures of regional geopolitics and domestic needs. The fate of millions of Syrians, both refugees in Turkey and those displaced within Syria, hangs in the balance, as both nations navigate a path between confrontation and possible reconciliation. Ultimately, the future of Turkey-Syria relations will help shape the broader Middle Eastern landscape, highlighting the challenges of securing peace in a region where alliances are as fragile as the terrain.
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